Brent Jesse rebirth?

I suppose his point was that the professional downturn in demand will cause tube companies to go out of business? Have I got that logic right, Ralph? So all that will be left will be the remaining supply that guitar and other pro applications don't need? And that the tube makers will now be only boutique and/or very expensive?

I can't quite figure out why tubes will be going away or getting scarce on Ralph's reasoning but am interested to learn.

@hilde45 you have the reasoning right. Guitar amps are 90% of the global tube market and have been for decades.  The war in Ukraine has not helped as it has caused tube prices to increase quite a lot recently. Right now its not too much of an issue, but even in high end remains the simple question of what if a solid state amp comes along and sounds better than the tube competition?

I enjoy tubes quite a lot. I like to devise circuits for them and build projects, just for the fun of it. Its made me keenly aware that some of the appeal of tubes has an artisan quality about it. 

@atmasphere 

Right now its not too much of an issue, but even in high end remains the simple question of what if a solid state amp comes along and sounds better than the tube competition?

Thank you. This helps me see there are two distinct rationales for developing new types of amplifier -- one is the possible tube shortages and the other is the potential for amplifiers that are more energy efficient, easier to maintain, and perhaps more amenable to a wider set of speakers while sounding as good. I suppose the "as good" part will have to include "as good and tube-like" for those of us that like tubes, but I suppose there can be a lot of ways to accomplish that. My Pass XA-25 already proves it's possible.

@hilde45 Yes. If there was a robust manufacturing of the SIT transistors, not just power transistors but also signal transistors, we'd have seen tubes vanish long ago as SITs have triode linearity and even soft clipping. 

Fortunately class D has come far enough that it can do quite well when compared to a good class A tube amp. Or class A solid state for that matter. 

Just read this on the PSVANE page:

"PSVANE constantly pursues the ultimate fusion and refinement of musical art and industrial craftsmanship. We infuse our profound understanding of music and creative artistic expression into the design and manufacture of each vacuum tube, as these tubes are no longer mere industrial products, but true conveyors of musical artistry. To achieve this, we have built the world's largest and most specialized vacuum tube production line. Over ten senior engineers, each with more than 30 years of experience in the vacuum tube and audio industry, alongside over 300 producers, deliver 1.6 million high-quality vacuum tubes to the world each year, crafting the sound of excellence."

So, maybe tubes are dying, but 1.6 million give me comfort the supply might easily outlast my needs.

After all, our sun goes out in about 5 billion years, too, and that will definitely impact the tube supply.

Back in the 1990s, they said that vinyl playback is dead.  In the mid-2000’s, it was all about peak oil ;-)

None of this is to argue that solid state can be done right.  It takes more talent to do so however, and definitely separates the men (designers) from the boys.

... Thom @ Galibier