@elliottbnewcombjr
Well, it's not that simple. Consider that a 2026 smartphone has more power than the entire worldwide computational capacity available in 1966. Ten years later:
In 1976, a single Cray-1 supercomputer could perform roughly 160 megaflops (160 million floating-point operations per second), a 2026 flagship smartphone (like a projected iPhone 17/18 or Galaxy S26) will likely operate in the range of 2,000+ gigaflops, making it tens of thousands of times faster.
Why is this relevant? Because
The Cray-1 supercomputer consumed approximately 115 kW to 135 kW of power for the processor and memory alone. When including the required Freon-based cooling system and storage, total power consumption often exceeded 200 kW, enough energy to power dozens of homes.
So tens of thousands of Cray-1s would literally consume as much energy as a small US city. Yet their contemporary computational counterpart, the smartphone, sips less than a night light.
It's not hard to imagine that the energy footprint of AI generation will follow a similar pattern. Right now AI is in its infancy, new models must be generated from scratch, wild west-style competition causes duplication of effort. New ways to make AI as frugal as a smartphone will be discovered, likely by AI itself.
So AI's current power needs justifiably cause concern, but are unlikely to remain so decades from now. As always, no tree grows to the sky.