Interesting points and reasonable conclusions. However, my crystal ball is a little foggier so maybe my predictions are a bit different.
I agree with your first point that Blu-Ray is not hugely better, but it is demonstrably better. It is only the price premium that is holding it back as studios milk it for all they can. When the prices drop, why purchase regular DVD over Blu-Ray? You'll take the better one if the price differential is not too great. I think this will happen eventually.
Also, there are larger forces at work here. Equipment manufacturers and retailers have to keep things going forward or their market stagnates. Stores are pushing Blu-Ray players, not regular DVD players. A regular DVD player will soon become as rare as a stand alone CD player in the mass market stores. Also, higher-end computers are adding Blu-Ray drives and recorders. These things will create a demand for the discs which will increase as prices drop.
I think your second point is true but it is past oriented; it only applies to people replacing collections. What about going forward...people who are buying a title for the first time? Blu-Ray will focus on new titles, not remastered classics, at least in the beginning. And for the people replacing things, never underestimate the desire of people to get the latest and greatest. It keeps the computer industry in business.
I think your third point about downloads is the future. But we're a long way from having the bandwidth capability to deliver in any appreciable numbers. Internet providers are even now throttling high bandwidth users with higher prices and slower downlaod speeds. When we do get more bandwidth that is readily available, we'll probably be past Blu-Ray into the next thing anyway (i.e. downloads).
I agree with your first point that Blu-Ray is not hugely better, but it is demonstrably better. It is only the price premium that is holding it back as studios milk it for all they can. When the prices drop, why purchase regular DVD over Blu-Ray? You'll take the better one if the price differential is not too great. I think this will happen eventually.
Also, there are larger forces at work here. Equipment manufacturers and retailers have to keep things going forward or their market stagnates. Stores are pushing Blu-Ray players, not regular DVD players. A regular DVD player will soon become as rare as a stand alone CD player in the mass market stores. Also, higher-end computers are adding Blu-Ray drives and recorders. These things will create a demand for the discs which will increase as prices drop.
I think your second point is true but it is past oriented; it only applies to people replacing collections. What about going forward...people who are buying a title for the first time? Blu-Ray will focus on new titles, not remastered classics, at least in the beginning. And for the people replacing things, never underestimate the desire of people to get the latest and greatest. It keeps the computer industry in business.
I think your third point about downloads is the future. But we're a long way from having the bandwidth capability to deliver in any appreciable numbers. Internet providers are even now throttling high bandwidth users with higher prices and slower downlaod speeds. When we do get more bandwidth that is readily available, we'll probably be past Blu-Ray into the next thing anyway (i.e. downloads).