Well, let's look at the market for sound reproduction and make an educated, clean-sheet-of-paper guess. Hi-res digital, available as either download, stream, or SACD/DVD audio is out there already. It offers the essentially "perfect sound forever" promised, but not delivered, by CD. Hardware is expensive, but quite good examples may be had for non-stratospheric prices. IMHO, the combination of high quality sonics plus convenience plus affordability would doom the LP record to instant obsolescence should it come to market brand new today. Sad but in all probability true. Think back: remember the El cassette? How about digital audiotape? Those didn't work out so good, as I recall. LPs wouldn't either if brought to market now for the first time.
Would vinyl even be invented today?
Records, cartridges and tonearms seem like such an unlikely method to play music--a bit of Rube Goldberg. Would anyone even dream of this today? It's like the typewriter keyboard--the version we have may not be the best, but it stays due to the path dependence effect. If vinyl evolved from some crude wax cylinder to a piece of rock careening off walls of vinyl, hasn't it reached the limits of the approach? Not trying to be critical--just trying to get my head around it.