Showing 50 responses by geoffkait
Note the caveat in that statement, “it’s potential effectiveness in the early impairment.” I dare say by the time people get to be tested and get test results back they are no longer in the “early impairment” stage. And the ones who only get no symptoms or mild symptoms do not require any treatments - I.e., ventilators, even hospitalization. In addition, if “compassionate use” as stated by the White House previously means use of the drug as a last resort, that conflicts with idea of early stages. But I’m not 100% what compassionate use means. Anybody know?
Speaking of numbers that don’t add up, this just in re China coronavirus numbers,
Wuhan residents say coronavirus figures released by China don't add up
”Chinese officials, desperate to recast the country as a global leader that has conquered the coronavirus, have been saying that its death rates are decreasing in the city of Wuhan. The problem, residents say, is that the numbers don’t add up.
Wuhan, the first epicenter of the global outbreak, began lifting its two-month lockdown over the weekend. The city in Central China restarted some subway service, reopened its borders and allowed families to reunite.Despite China’s propaganda pushers being all smiles for the international community, residents told Radio Free Asia that Beijing’s claims that there were only 2,500 deaths in Wuhan is far from reality.
For more than a week, seven large funeral homes that serve Wuhan have been handing out the cremated remains of about 500 people to their families every day. When added, the figure puts the official number the Chinese government has claimed into question.
"It can’t be right ... because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died," said Zhang, a Wuhan resident who only gave Radio Free Asia his last name. "They started distributing ashes and starting interment ceremonies on Monday."”
Worldwide curves don’t appear to be flattening yet. Maybe next week. Or the week after that...
Talk amongst yourselves. Smoke if ya got em.
Death rate 4.8% worldwide average.
Hey thanks a lot Florida! Lock em all up!!
A Florida church was packed with worshippers Sunday despite a local "safer-at-home" order designed to help curb the spread of COVID-19, reports CBS Tampa affiliate WTSP-TV. A live-stream of the service at The River at Tampa Bay Church showed its crowded main sanctuary.
WTSP says the sheriff told church leaders they were in direct violation of the order, which was issued by Hillsborough County officials and went into effect Friday. It requires that businesses and organizations considered essential abide by social distancing guidelines and keep people six feet away from each other or shut down.
Attorneys for local officials and the church were working to resolve things as quickly as possible, WTSP reported.
The national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that people stay six feet apart and not gather in groups of 50 or more, according to WTSP.
A song for a Saturday.
Ventilator BluesThe Rolling Stones
When your spine is cracking and your hands, they shake
Heart is bursting and your butt’s gonna break
Woman’s cussing, you can hear her scream
Feel like murder in the first degree
Ain’t nobody slowing down no way
Everybody’s stepping on their accelerator
Don’t matter where you are
Everybody’s gonna need a ventilator
This is worse than the scene in Prometheus. Are the gods pissed off?
70 million people in the US are under a severe weather threat that includes tornadoes and hail
Updated 4:22 AM EDT March 28, 2020
Severe storms, including possible tornadoes and hail, are expected to affect wide portions of the United States on Saturday.
"Over 70 million Americans face the threat of severe weather today, with the greatest threat for a significant weather outbreak covering roughly 45,000 square miles, including Chicago metro," CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam said
This just in!
Flattening the curve. So, like when are we supposed to see the curve flatten, even a little bit? Scroll down to cases chart in blue. Or the deaths chart, take your pick.
Who else thinks labeling geographic areas in the US according to whether they should maintain or relax social distancing is a really bad idea? There are no real borders and travel has not been restricted very much. The better course of action is to lock everything down tighter. You know, so those areas not yet severely affected would have a chance of escaping the virus. Agree, disagree? And would OSTFU baseball hats and T-shirts sell very well now?
DARPA has been working on that for weeks.
Removing the antibodies from the blood of the recovered to slow down the affects of the virus in the sick.
>>>>>“I don’t know, Chief, if he’s very smart or very dumb.” - Quint in Jaws
If you want to follow the official numbers all over the world, I think this one is best.
>>>>By no coincidence that is precisely the same data contained in the Johns Hopkins database I have been referring to from the very beginning. Johns Hopkins is the CORONAVIRUS RESOURCE CENTER for the official data. Johns Hopkins University, experts in global public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness have been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19. Thanks for catching up.
From Al Jazeera article, 24 March 2020
“We know that the virus’s main route of transmission from one person to another is through droplets which are sneezed or coughed out by infected people. A single cough can produce up to 3,000 droplets, while a sneeze can produce as many as 10,000.
These droplets then land in or are breathed into another person’s airways, or fall on a surface that is touched by an uninfected person, who then touches their face - specifically their mouth, nose, ears or eyes.
This method of transmission is known as "droplet spread". While it is in these droplets, the coronavirus is only in the air for a short time and travels only a short distance before it is pulled down by gravity after being coughed or sneezed out.The exact length of time the virus can "live" in the air outside of a host body is currently being researched. According to a recent report in the New England Journal of Medicine, some studies have put it at just a few seconds, while one suggests it may be two to three hours.
However long the virus can last, while it is in the air in droplets, anyone within two metres of the cough or sneeze can breathe it in and become infected. An uninterrupted droplet from a sneeze can travel around 60 metres, but most are caught in tissues.
The virus may also remain airborne in much tinier droplets, according to some emerging evidence published in the same journal this week by scientists at Princeton University, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and the US research agency, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) - though not in significant quantities.”
It’s a Catch-22. You can’t get tested without a doctor’s order. The doctor doesn’t want you coming to his office because if you have Covid 19 you might give it to him and the nurses. If you go to a hospital to get tested you have to wait with others who cane to be tested. Therefore anyone who comes to the hospital for testing who does not have Covid-19 will almost certainly have it after an hour or two of waiting. And anyone who does have covid-19 might die waiting to be tested. If he makes it that long he has a good chance of dying before he gets the test results.
But that’s only because the US is testing a lot more than say a week ago. It’s the mortality rate that’s the critical factor not the number of cases. As we speak,
United States Coronavirus Cases:79,082 Deaths:1,143
Mortality rate = 1.45%
Italy Coronavirus Cases:80,589 Deaths:8,215
Mortality rate = 10.2%
- Warm climate reduction in flu may have less to do with temperature, and more to do with higher ozone levels in interior and exterior air in summer. While long term exposure to high ozone is associated with higher flu rates, correlations have been shown that on localize short term time scales, increased ozone resulted in less infection... but that is correlation, not causation.
>>>Whatever. Another Wikipedia expert.
According to one study, Louisiana, with nearly 1,800 cases as of Thursday morning, is experiencing the fastest growth in new cases in the world; Gov. John Bel Edwards said on Tuesday that the current trajectory of case growth in Louisiana was similar to those in Spain and Italy. This week, President Trump approved the governor’s request for a major disaster declaration, which unlocks additional federal funding to combat the outbreak.
The situation in and around New Orleans is particularly acute, with the city reporting 827 confirmed cases as of Wednesday night, more than the total number of cases in all but 15 states. Hospitals are overwhelmed and critical safety gear is running low.
Orleans Parish, which shares its borders with the city of New Orleans, has suffered the highest number of deaths per capita of any county in the nation. Of the parish’s 37 deaths — nearly three times the death toll of Los Angeles County — 11 are from a single retirement home, where dozens more residents are infected.
In a grim irony, there is a rising suspicion among medical experts that the crisis may have been accelerated by Mardi Gras, the weekslong citywide celebration that unfolds in crowded living rooms, ballrooms and city streets, which this year culminated on Feb. 25.
Frank, thanks for the link. I’m still going to push my luck for awhile as the grocery stores I go to are well managed and only allow 25 people every 10 minutes and everyone is keeping as much distance from each other as possible. People are very aware of what’s going on.
>>>>The road to hell is paved with good intentions. There are many ways to contract the virus in stores besides personal contact. Two days ago they had to shut down part of DC because a bunch of people apparently had no idea what was going on whilst they were parading around the cherry blossoms shoulder to shoulder. 🌸 🌸 🌸 Besides 25 is still more than 10 allowed by most states.
Hey, whatever. Are you suddenly the resident virus expert? The Coronavirus is spreading rapidly in warm locations, too, like Panama, where it’s in the 90s and cases nearing 600, and South America. That’s trump-think. The numbers we see today are almost entirely the results of old slow tests. Most likely all tests used in the US today are the old slow tests. They can’t even get doctors and nurses protection supplies to hospitals, much less new tests.
Let’s talk testing and test results
First of all, the new rapid 45 minute tests were just approved by FDA Wednesday yesterday and have not been used, who knows when? As was reported yesterday, in critical areas like NYC patients are dying in emergency rooms waiting to be tested, forget about waiting for test results.
Streamlined reporting adds to the tally of tests for the novel coronavirus conducted in California — but results are still pending for tens of thousands of them. Even as California continues to add tests for the novel coronavirus to its arsenal — including 150,000 flown in from Hong Kong — tens of thousands of results are still pending, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday.
Newsom reported that as of Tuesday, 66,800 tests for the novel coronavirus have been conducted in California. It’s a massive increase of 39,200 since Monday, because of improved reporting from public health, commercial, and university labs processing California’s tests.
“A lot of new providers, small labs, only submit positive tests, not just negative tests, and a lot of folks are sitting on paperwork,” Newsom said. “Over the course of last week, we’ve been scrubbing all of those and getting down into some of the smallest collection labs in order to make sure that everybody is on the same page. “
As of 10 a.m., 2,535 people have tested positive for the novel coronavirus in California. But even with limited testing, 48,600 results are still pending, according to the California Department of Public Health.
That adds one more delay to the list of backlogs slowing California’s testing efforts, which already included insufficient swabs, vials, and media for collecting patient samples, as well as a shortage of kits for extracting the virus’s genetic material.
“More is being done in that space,” Newsom said. “But let me acknowledge from the outset that 66,800 tests is not enough.”
Breaking News! 6:30 am 26 March, CNN
[I beg to differ with the statement below that “numbers (of deaths) will rise as more tests are administered and analyzed.” If those who test positive can be treated and saved then the number of deaths should actually go down, not up. That is the whole idea behind flattening the curve.]
More than 200 deaths from Covid-19 were reported Wednesday in the United States — a new high for fatalities recorded in a single day.
The dramatic spike brought the number of novel coronavirus deaths since the outbreak reached the United States in late January to at least 928. Sunday morning -- less than four days ago -- the nationwide total was 326 deaths, according to CNN data derived from state reports.
Officials reported 223 deaths Wednesday, an increase higher than any other day. Tuesday saw 164 reports. Experts have said numbers will rise dramatically as more tests are administered and analyzed.
At the White House coronavirus task force news conference, President Donald Trump said: "The more aggressively we commit to social distancing ... the more lives we can save."
More than 65,000 people in the United States have now had a positive test for the novel coronavirus.