While I am not saying this is not a serious issue as it is, but I think there are times when people tend to over react.
I would think that there is more to life than visiting an audio store and listening to gear or even purchasing something at this time
I can never understand why members think that the world is going to come to an end if they don’t do something audio related everyday.
stay in your house where you are safe and when this clears then you can visit your audio stores again
It will impact all business’. This will be interesting how this all plays out. Distance yourself from the public.
This is a good time to be an Audiophile! Social distancing should come naturally to you, lol, and getting lost in music is most of the time a solo event.
I’m stocked up on good food and “supplies”, good music and good gear. My other hobby, Mountain Biking, is still another activity I can do safely and away from others.
I was at my dealer last Friday getting my preamp re-tubed, imagine being on lockdown with no tunes! Just the store manager was there the owner and another employee out doing a custom install. I ended up spending 3 hours there as my 9 preamp tubes were tested and 6 matching replacements were found, and he answered the phone and dealt with 2 other customers. It was honestly a pleasant distraction.
I'm in Santa Clara county, California and the shelter in place order applies to us. So we aren't holding auditions or going out to visit anyone. But we're still available via our other normal means of communication like email and phone, and we're also doing video calls. So far, shipping companies are still operating as normal and we can still ship things out.
Regarding Covid-19, my main concern is not so much a personal life-threatening illness, but the potential of its consequences surmounting health-care capabilities.
A spike of folks needing hospitalization that they may not be able to easily, or timely receive, is a definite concern. Especially when dealing with an-until-now, unknown viral agent.
We never know when we may need hospitalization & equipment for the Corona virus or the seasonal flu, or for other life-threatening illnesses. Hence, the recent steps taken by federal, state and local governments in the U.S. to flatten the Covid-19 outbreak curve.
It's good to know that ~80% of the people afflicted with Covid-19 will ostensibly not need specialized care. But if +/- 20% of people needing medical intervention were to present en masse (so to speak), things could get bad for everyone needing specialized care, very quick indeed.
The ironic fact that Covid-19 depicts is: that ~40,000 to 60,000 yearly fatalities are related to the seasonal flu in the U.S. The news media as sensational as it is geared, doesn't dwell or specifically focus on this striking figure -- the fatalities have simply become "expected". And with the exception of the annual flu vaccine and the admonition to wash hands et al, the CDC, federal and state government's have never taken the draconian steps that are now being done for Covid-19.
So, the devil is in the details of leveling-off the outbreak frequency numbers. Which theoretically will allow the healthcare professionals to handle the influx of those needing hospital/ICU care. Time will tell whether these steps were sufficient, or in fact, even warranted. But until that time, to err towards complacency as opposed to action, would seem to be a dubious and even incorrect direction to take.
The danger is very real, and serious. The reason we just saw a comprehensive multi-trillion dollar stimulus package is this paper by epidemiologist Dr Neil Ferguson and published today by the Imperial College of London showing that merely acting to slow rather than completely stop the spread would "still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over." https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College...
In other words exactly what I been saying for two solid months, only now its a prestigious epidemiologist reporting to the White House.
Their projection is for 2.2M (yes, million) deaths in the US.
That said, the Wuhan virus is spread not by speakers but by, uh, speakers. When you talk, or even breathe, it comes out in your breath. If you are infected. Which you must at this point assume that you are, and everyone else as well. Also assume every surface in the area of breathing people is contaminated, since moist breath and particles tend to drift and eventually settle on surfaces.
Wearing a mask interferes with this process. Virus that gets caught in the mask is virus not being deposited on surfaces. So avoid people, especially people so clueless or inconsiderate as to not be masked. Avoid touching surfaces anywhere anyone has been, because they could be contaminated. Above all wash and sanitize your hands like crazy and especially before eating or touching your face.
Do those things, maintain a distance of a good 6 feet, and there’s no reason not to go audition some gear. If that still somehow manages to be so important.
I am 71, in good health. My wife and I are not leaving home, except to take a daily walk or visit a park, and to get groceries every 10 days or so. I do not wish to be on a ventilator, and now I've assembled a great system, I'd like to live to enjoy it.
Calm down, millercarbon. The dire predictions were for the case when nothing was done to stop the spread of the virus. I.e., flatten the curve. The problem is a steep curve of virus cases will lead to overwhelming the health system. Flattening the curve will spread the number of cases over a longer time period, which the health system can handle. That’s why there was such a big response here and Europe and elsewhere over the weekend and today. As of today there is no change in the slope of the curve for the US. It will take time for the new order to get traction. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Multi-trillion dollar stimulus package....looks like their feeling the Bern!!
Yeah, I'm kinda sorry I started this thread. I'm not making light of anything. I'm sheltering in place, too. Just thought I'd open it up, especially about the impact on the dealers and manufacturers. All the other stuff is almost 90% of what I read, every day. I go to audiogon to take a break.
Two months ago this nut was posting links to conspiracy theory sites where this was a " manufactured virus". I think we, that is people who listen to scientist
knew what could happen when this first popped up in China. If we, that is us who listen to scientist would have sent experts to China like we did in Africa a number of years ago and tried to stop this there we wouldn't be in this mess but of course we, including us who listen to scientists are at the mercy of dingbats who listen to conspiracy theories and don't give a flat f@#$ about science thought it was a good idea to do away with science and all that uppity elite stuff the black president started.
Yes, Millercarbon, that is a model/projection number that uses the base input of “no effort to stop the spread”. The model is a worst case scenario that we are long past with our social distancing and other efforts already being implemented. Please do not project information that is hysterical and outdated as current fact. Out goal is to make the rate of the ongoing spread of this corona virus manageable by our health providers and facilities. To this end we should conscientiously place ourselves in our system’s sweet spot and play music. Possibly add some medicinal wine or spirits for good measure.
- His dire predictions continue and are so irresponsible and tiresome here on the Gon. On top of this we get the “I told you so” attitude that is also quite disappointing. Time for just doing what we must and calmly living our lives and encouraging/helping other do the best they can. Not a time to amplify fear and doomsday predictions that will always abound. This site is for audio and should not be treated like a hysteria playpen for adults. I understand the anxiety that comes with events like this as it is real. We are all in this one together. We can get through it relatively well when we put our energies into productive discourse and actions.
One day back in the late 70’s one of my astronomy club pals said hey did you hear? Carl Sagan giving a talk at the UW! When? Tonight! So we all piled in the car and drove from Puyallup to Seattle, making it in just before the monster hall completely filled up.
Sagan gave his then standard talk about the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy. Nobody really knows of course. The probability, I mean. Turns out its a gag: How many? One. Maybe. Hung jury. The talk was mostly a run-down on things like how many stars, how many of those with planets, how long the stars last based on mass and the rate fusion turns hydrogen to helium, just the kind of thing your way above average geeky teen has studied to death and yet still goes ga ga over.
Little did we know however the best part was the QA. Mostly the questions were pretty standard stuff. But a few grad students had some impressive if hard to follow ones, even a few that seemed almost impossible to answer. Incredibly, one after another he not only answered them all but in a way that enlightened everyone including the questioner. By enlightened I mean even if you didn’t understand the question to begin with you did by the end, and you understood why the answer was correct as well.
Well, with one exception. There was, not a group exactly but a cohort, a number of otherwise unrelated people who had but one thing in common, an utter and complete inability to comprehend. Anything. Quite a few different people but yet they all sounded exactly the same. No matter how eloquent the answer, or how pointed the barb, it was like water on a duck.
And yet Carl Sagan in his novel Contact was going to have Dr. Ellie Arroway (Jodie Foster in the movie) reach Vega via a black hole until Kip Thorne later of LIGO fame disabused him of that idea and suggested a worm hole instead. Hel-loo!
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined.In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
There was, not a group exactly but a cohort, a number of otherwise unrelated people who had but one thing in common, an utter and complete inability to comprehend. Anything.
There ya go, that sums up this administration in a nutshell.
@geoffkait call your Friends in Europe and see how real it isn’t. Ask them about the hospital beds in the bunkers and in the hallways ask him about the people falling like dominoes. This is definitely serious. It’s that kind of cavalier attitude that ends up getting people sick. Just wait till the kids get home from spring break.....
I agree you have to be cautious , this virus is by far worse for the elderly
Orr people with health issues,the young have been mainly ok .
what people don’t realize is over 35,000 people died from the flu in the US last year but nobody gave it a second thought , and I doubt very much ,that it will come close to that ,mainly because our country has been dry pro active since Jan putting a ban on travel and getting high precautions involved.
I am an ED doc in a very large urban teaching hospital (Wash U/Barnes Jewish in St Louis)
This is a serious disease. Death rate (using worldwide data) is 10x that of the flu. So using numbers given by Mrmb, that is a half million deaths. But those are only deaths by COVID-19. The crunch comes when a small percentage of sick people need ICU care or Vents. If (really when) the current numbers of those infected get sick (the 10-20%) it will exhaust medical resources. The 68 yo with an MI, will NOT have the equipment needed to save his life because it is being used by a COVID-19 patient. We simply do not have enough ICU beds or vents in the entire nation to care for the large increase in medical resources. In any large city, there are already sometimes 8-12 hour waits for an open ICU bed. All the while the critically ill patient is in the ED using up the ED resources and preventing another sick person from getting care. And most small hospital ICUs are NOT prepared to care for the really sick ICU player. These places often transfer these patients to larger medical center, sometimes with 1-2 day waits. Social distancing is vital to keep the numbers NOT DOWN, but to delay , or increase time they present over. The number of critically ill patients will be the same through the COVID-19 season, we just need to have them present to the hospitals over months, not weeks. And as draconian as it seems, look at any city, and you will see too many people ignoring the recommendations which will spread the virus faster and overwhelm the system.
In other words US medical system is so "f....d up it can not do what South Korea medical system can do !
andrewkelly@geoffkait call your Friends in Europe and see how real it isn’t. Ask them about the hospital beds in the bunkers and in the hallways ask him about the people falling like dominoes. This is definitely serious. It’s that kind of cavalier attitude that ends up getting people sick. Just wait till the kids get home from spring break.....
>>>>Huh? Cavalier attitude? What are you talking about? I have been on the front line of reality. Cut me some slack, Jack!
Schubert, go listen to some Bach! You have no idea what’s going on.
"No matter how eloquent the answer, or how pointed the barb, it was like water on a duck."
I'd call that whole description of event not overly eloquent.
"Schubert, go listen to some Bach!"
Did Bach write a Requiem, too?
Why does every coronavirus thread have to involve anger about politics. Varietas delectat, guys make it more interesting than politics.
From an Italian Doc: [exerpts]
Lessons Learned from the Front Line of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Northern Italy: An Emergency Physician’s Perspective:
Andrea Duca, MDEditorial Board, Emergency Medicine Practice
Attending Emergency Physician, Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy
- Prepare to initially receive patients with upper airway symptoms, followed in the next days by patients with persistent fever, and finally, patients with interstitial pneumonia. The proportion of patients needing admission increases day by day. As of March 10, 2020, up to 60%-70% of patients presenting to the ED with suspected COVID-19 infection needed to be admitted, primarily for hypoxia.
- In the first days, the critically ill patients will be mostly older than 65 with comorbidities, followed by younger patients in the days/weeks after. Do not exhaust all of your resources with the first patients. Patients will need to stay in the ICU for weeks.
- Patients come in waves, usually in late afternoon. For every 100 patients coming to the ED, expect to have 5 with severe ARDS, 10-20 with mild/moderate ARDS, and 40 patients needing oxygen to treat hypoxia.
- Prepare in advance to have 10% of staff becoming ill. Personal protection is hard to maintain during long shifts in a busy ED, but it is feasible, and constant vigilance is mandatory.
- In large health systems...
- Lung ultrasound...
- Tell all the...
- Prepare psychological support for the staff early. You will need it.
Look at China. Would never trade our society for theirs, but their ability to completely lock down a region (basically house arrest) with a population that follows the orders almost to a 'T' the social isolation has stopped COVID in it's tracks. Only 1 new case today.
Thanks for sharing. Interestingly, he does not mention heart symptoms at all.
its not a large group place you can keep your space from others and if you don't feel safe stay home wait until the air clears you will still be saving up the money and be able to go a step or two higher in the line you were saving for
After looking at the airports, on the computer, yesterday and today......very dense crowd for that much time together. And they are going back to all parts of the country for.... dispersal. I'll refer you to the 'Infected Mushrooms' CD, the song 'U R so F***ed'. Played it at a buddy's house, him and his wife loved the cd. The cd stayed with them. Most people are going to survive, we will all be touched by this virus. I am not sure if my girlfriend and self will be so lucky. At 70, life has been good to me. Next week, I go to radiation consultation, then 6 weeks of voice box treatment for stage one cancer. I remain optimistic, despite my pessimistic self.
@dwmaggie....Good luck with the rad consult....positive 'tude beats the alternative, even if...;)
Noticed one of the pros' being interviewed on CNN wearing fabric gloves, which may help if you just Have to touch things.....and who doesn't....
I'm trying to get into the habit whenever I'm out 'n about, which is getting turned down to a minimum.
I'm 68 with a TAVR, taking blood thinners. Thinking of getting a T-shirt with a bulls' eye on both F & R....or "Zombie In Training"...
May as well have a sense of humor about it all, it may make the whole situation a tad more tolerable...*shrug*
Anyway....invest in 'soap' stocks.....remember what happened to those who bought stocks in rolling paper makers....;)
(Send me 1% for that tip, please. *S*)
Good variable factors, y'all...
dwmaggie - prayers with you. Stage 1 laryngeal cancer highly survivable
asvjerry - don't forget Boeing. Great deal :)
Stay safe, all
Do you think that the set-up of U.S.A. may help a bit when compared to Italy, Spain, China, and the rest of the Europe for that matter?
Maybe life in cars and suburbs does have some advantages, after all.
Covid-19....sounds like a new Dac.
All we can do is follow the doctors orders and smile.
Really screwing up my work and I am a lucky one. How are the Hotel and Restaurant folks going to survive?
Prepare for the worst, expect the best.
So, this thread is not about cables?
So, this thread is not about cables?
It's a fuse thread, can't you tell?
Nice post @jpwarren58. Thanks!
I sent a note to one of my local audio stores, telling them I was thinking of them and that I'd be in touch when it seemed safe, and they said that they were doing appointment only and that they're offering in-home loaners during this time.
asvjerry and dseltz, thank you. I was thinking of buying toilet paper stock.....when it touches bottom. Oh, crap, all our toilet paper comes from China.
24 pack of TP is worth more than my 403b.
In a pinch separate the two plies and voila! - you’ve got two rolls! Problem solved! 🤗
I have read through this entire thread and can't bring myself to add to the arguments presented because no one seems to listen to anyone who has a different outlook that they already have anyway. i will only add one piece of information; namely that most COVAD-19 deaths are related to pneumonia infections, so I just got an pneumonia vaccine. They are available.
What I see amongst my neighbors is checking on each other and offering help. Too bad our media and government don’t take the same approach of “how can we help and encourage” instead of “who is most to blame for this mess?!” I haven’t seen anything before like what is occurring now in my 65 years of living. I don’t blame anyone for being less than fully prepared for a one-in-a-lifetime-or-two event. We cannot expect to have all of the supplies and medical equipment needed now, held in perpetual preparation for when this could happen. I agree with those who say that short supplies should be conserved for those who most need them. And I wish the 24 hour news cycles would do less blaming and catastrophizing and more helpful suggestions.
I don't blame the President for pushing successfully to eliminate a permanent epidemic monitoring and command group inside the White House National Security Council (NSC) and another in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—both of which followed the scientific and public health leads of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the diplomatic advice of the State Department.
I don't blame him for ordering the NSC's entire global health security unit shutdown.
As a result of this defunding: Dr. Luciana Borio, then the council's director of medical and biodefense preparedness, said in 2018: "The threat of pandemic flu is the number one health security concern. Are we ready to respond? I fear the answer is no.
I don't blame him for saying just a few weeks ago that the virus was a hoax made up to take him down. I don't blame him for saying on:
January 22: He was not worried about a pandemic. "We have it totally under control. It's only 1 person coming in from China"Feb 26: "Because of all we've done, the risk to the American people remains very low."
Feb 26:"We're going to be pretty soon at only 5 people. And we could be at just 1 or 2 people over the next short period of time."
February 27 that the spread is not inevitable, that IF the disease spreads, he will put Pence in charge.
Feb. 28: "I think it's really going well."
Feb. 28: "It's going to disappear. One day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear."
Feb. 28: "This is their new hoax.
March 17-"I always felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.
Now we are caught flatfooted while S. Korea tests over 10,000 people a day. Well, we are only now trying to get up to speed and we must all pull together----but we should have had testing for months. In America, we are aloud to speak the truth and place blame where it belongs.
Do vaccines against pneumonia protect you against the new coronavirus?
No. Vaccines against pneumonia, such as pneumococcal vaccine and Haemophilus influenza type B (Hib) vaccine, do not provide protection against the new coronavirus.
The virus is so new and different that it needs its own vaccine. Researchers are trying to develop a vaccine against 2019-nCoV, and WHO is supporting their efforts.
There is actually a lot of information (called facts) out there that you might be interested in knowing. If you had the virus or lost someone to it, I bet you would not be so cavalier about the lies and incompetence that caused months of critical delays in testing that has been at least partly responsible for loss of life and the serious health issues that some with the virus have. Not to mention the economy.
Yes, there is no known cure right now, but if testing began months ago, we could have quarantined those who tested positive much earlier and instituted some of the present measures weeks ago. It would have flattened the curve of the spread in its infancy---the most critical time to do so. Plus, we would be closer to a cure than we are today. In fact, the old government infrastructure that existed to prevent or ameliorate the impacts of potential pandemics on U.S. citizens would have been "on this" and starting to develop measures and cures in December, 2019 instead of March 2020.
Perhaps you would give the President a rating of 10 out of 10 for his response to the crisis as he did.
I am "over it" as you call it-- because we can only look forward now. But I do know and will not forget how we got here.