No, you need to wait till the third quarter next year to buy. At that point the DJIA will bottom at about six thousand, un-employment will have broken 10%. The 80/60 rule will drop to about 80/35-40. That will translate to a MSRP new at $1000, selling used for about $300. Good things come to those that wait. So, if you are thinking about selling, do it now and pick up an extra 20%.
I agree with Buconero. The financial crisis really hasn't hit main street yet. When it does, it will get very ugly for the majority of people, I'm afraid.
first very early signs are here, lots of ads claiming they are selling to get cash due to lost jobs - but sad to say that Buconero and Kublakhan are right, it will get a lot worse
IMHO prices are down - or put another way the stuff that is moving is now selling for less then 50% of MSRP. I would buy what you need or really want - cash is king and as the guys point out, the way deep deals are still ahead
FWIW I have noticed that here on the 'Gon the mid Novemberer to Christmas time period is a very good time to buy since a lot of people seem to put up their "good stuff" during this period
Yes without a shadow of areasonable doubt. The price that indivual sellers of used audio will get will decline but only after they put the stuff up for sale using the %50 scale with no takers. In addition I think the marketing end of our cottage industry are going to have take slim margins. The big companies will sell their expensive gear to a group of buyers who have plenty of money but anything that a company expects to launch that is a "never heard of that company" will have to start up with no income because the low end of high end will be very weary of spending their precious sparable income on a luxury product such as audio.
It's a buyer's market now and the ecopnomy is in the crapper already not only do I know people have lost their jobs to less expensive young kids quite personally. The prices of everything have gone way up while incomes have stayed the same, declined or disappeared due to enemployment.
It really that almost really expensive gear that will be hit hardest. I would enture to say the largest percentage of buyers of the % to 10K pieces have to stretch to get that far as it was. In an unstable financial environment I think that the stretching will be put off untill where that buyer ends up is very clear. We have drowned in debt and the usually partial funding being debt will end when paying for loaned monies become expensive and reset where a person is on the expendable income scale. I know from statistics printed in the newspaper we are more in debt than ever and the prospect of being unable to finance that debt a scary thought indeed. I know that part too.
The established bigger players will always hae a niche . If you can spend 15 grand you can spend 20 in my mind. I am not amongst those who buy expensive audio stuff relatively speaking to a normalk person $4,000 amps a TT for 2K and speakers for 7 is insane but most you know that is for new when I bougght used , Demo etc, The only area where persistently spend a lot on but have slowed down to a trickle is for older tubes.
The sad thing is that while the price of tubes has skyrocketed and seemed like the best investment I had made . I haven't done well when the rubber hits the road and I want to sell off some. I usually net very little by net I mean minimalize my losses.
I have 6SN7s that would typically sell for over $100 a pair and even some that may have or might still get $500. Today I can by them from a dealer for $400 and one friend said deal on such a pair for $350 he quickly demanded all sorts of concessions and trades which would end up with me giving him cash.
I am just so sick of hearing "you should sell all that stuff" with the idea I suppose that i don't actully need 150 tubes of a given type and piles of silly experiments with older mid fi ggear.
The thought of selling things I admire very very cheaply troubles me. the one buck no reserve auction is scary but I may try it I honestly don't know how to price the pieces in the never use overfull audio storage room I should put things up for I always seem to end up practically giving stuff away.
The only thing is that I will not give away is my tube collection period. I like it I enjoyed picking tubes to play again in the various pieces of tube gear I have and know that decent Old Stock tubes are not getting easier to find.
I hate selling because the buyer reserves the right to bitch and moan you to death, over stupid things like the 1 mm scratch on the rear or the like. The stuff that is truly not good looking -forget about it.
I am going to sell a legendary preamp one of these days but the lid has paint chipped away on it. It sounds like a modern piece, a true wire with gain, but that won't make it an easy sale plus it was modded to get it to sound like that. I have to upcharge for anything except the leeast expensie tubes...it uses 6 12AX7s. I have them sure, but replacing them is a true nightmare unless you go with current production which is dramatically improving with the New Sensor AX7s.
It is a bad time to sell but I can't stand the B.S. line not financially motivated. Then give it away guy!!! of course you want money why else would you sell it and it doesn't matter one iota to the buyer if you are financially moyivated or not if the price is too high you'll know it very quickly.
What am I going to do with my 70s vintage stuff or the 80s stuff it was a different world just a few years ago now ask a kid what a stereo is? You will be surprised that very few know.
Only a few nuts spent megabucks on their stereo ggood was good enough. What you have are piles of midfi that once cost real money not really big bucks but getting there.
In summary class prices for the mundane are falling like rocks, some equipment you can't give away.
I will sell it cheap but only kids and newbies will be interested. The kids will give you more for some portable iPod like thing than the pristine Kenwood integrated that is 30 now.
I am always amazed how long it takes thrifts to sell that stuff for almost nothing 20 bucks 30 bucks, no one wants that Sh**.I think I am the last moron alive who appreciates that stuff. I see Nakamichi Cassette Tape decks sit at 20 bucks for two weeks or more. No its usually the entry level one not the 600 or Dragon. So the answer as was said and then I James Joyced it for elaboration, it is yes, so buy it if you got money but take your time unless it is a Dragon.
Yep, the deals will come! When people start really needing money, and re-prioritizing their lives, they'll surely start selling off that equipment they once wanted to badly, and you'll find all the deals, sure. It will be a great opportunity for those in a position to be able to trade for the gear, even services will be cut for custom (I know custom install guys, who used to be real busy, who have been sitting at home waiting for the phones to ring!) applications.
Nice thing here, might be that if you're real careful, you could buy near complete systems, use em for a few years, and sell it all off for the same or more than you paid for it, when the economy turns back up! That's free stereo folks!
Beautiful thing about the net and our used hobby, is that you can always find better and better bargains, if you keep you eyes pealed, and remain patient!
Can't tell you how many deals I found that I've actually turned a real profit on, from trading hi-fi! I've actually bought multiple complete HT systems - some of which included factory sealed new in box electronics - from rich sorts, investors, stock traders -you name it - who used to have big bucks, then suddenly lost their rears in the market!...only to dump all their gear to someone like me, who made em a package price deal and turned around and sold the stuff for 3x's what I paid em for it!
They're out there...and more to come, indeed.
All I know is the worse things get, the more hidden treasures and opportunites will arise for the savy.
So, if things get worse, I'm thinkin'I'll buy maybe one complete AV system for each room in my house, including bathrooms, patios and closets (lol) in another year or two...
Its a shame that the suffering of one is excitement to another, if you stop and think about it all its a really sad time for many folks who may need to sell items they love to simply survive. I buy used like alot of other folks but this atmosphere makes a celebration of scoring cheap gear feel a little bit dirty, but thats just my opinion.
"Its a shame that the suffering of one is excitement to another, if you stop and think about it all its a really sad time for many folks who may need to sell items they love to simply survive."
...need to sell items they "LOVE" to survive? Oh, boo hoo hoo! Have to sell items they "love". Um, I got news for you, it's been happening since the begging of time!
Well you're entitled to your opinion, obviously. I would beg to differ that people who own luxuries like stereo equipment, and have to sell things off to re-prioritize has been happening for decades! In fact, I'm pretty sure that a huge percentage of the time, if you trade here on Audiogon, you're likely running into situations very often where someone has to bail out off some gear because, yes, they need the money! I've been doing it off and on for almost 20 years now, pesonally. (that is, selling my gear because I needed money)
Anyone else here sell off gear when times get a little tough?...loose a few too many bucks in Vegas?...over extend your purchases more than your means?...yes, even cause your stocks plunged unexpectedly?
Yeah, THAT'S LIFE. Big deal! You move on to the next buck or opportunity. And, in the end, it's all just STUFF! I got news for you.
"Suffering?"...Suffering?! Um, I wouldn't call losing some money, even a lot of money, suffering! That's been happening since the dawn of time! In fact, the ENTIRE STOCK MARKET SYSTEM is made up of people making profits on another's loss! You can't have gains in the market without someone else's loosing money! Sorry, to say, but that's how it works.
If you don't think so, just ask Jim Crammer of Mad Money. In fact, email Suzzie Orman about that, or even having to sell a house for a loss in profit.
My point is is that money goes up and down. Anyone who's ever seen a gallon of gas go from $.99 to $4.50, back down to $1.95 per gallon understands fluctuations in the market! Why is that suffering? Oh, ya mean because you can't go to Disney Land 5 times in one year when gas goes through the roof?! Oh well...
In fact, I'm pretty sure that "a deal is still a deal!"...at least the last time I checked.
And, if someone is rich, and they loose a bunch of money, I garantee they'll likely know how to get it all back plus some more! Um, I think Trump was in the hole something like $1 billion in 1990!...
Quote: "The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed for lack of a better word is good.
Greed is right.
Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.
Greed, in all of its forms greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind.
And greed you mark my words will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA. (Gordon Geko - Wall Street)
your way too smart for me, yes this has been going on for years but not because many have entire retirement portfolio's whiped out, house values have crashed, unemployment is gaining in numbers daily, and many other factors you probably are not capable of understanding. Celebrate your potential audio purchase all you want but understanding these times are a bit different than others shouldnt be so hard to do, many who enjoy this are not rich, nor should you have to be to enjoy art that brings you happiness.
You can rub one out watching "Wall Street" all you want while folks are suffering far beyond selling Stereo gear which was the larger point I was trying to make, but that is yet another topic you cant seem to grasp, I never had high hopes of conversation from a guy named Iplaynaked but I really over-estimated you never thinking it could be so pointless. Seeing how you are so smart I wont waste anymore of my or your time on big picture discourse.
What you need to focus on is your next score and between that aswell as educating yourself on finance watching Suze Orman or Jim Cramer you must be tired. How could you not be a financial expert watching a frugal lesbian and some guy who screams and plays with sound effects machines while taking calls from the likes of you, and oh yeah.... movies........brilliant!
I just hate it when someone who's wealthier than me has to sell the gear they love so much, and I get a good deal! I just HATE IT! Makes me all upset just thinking about it, really...
I'm going to "re-structure" here, so as to not offend any...
My fellow Audiogon "bargain shoppers",
In light of the current and especially coming (likely) economic climate, there are and will surely be some great deals out there for the prudent and patient. It has both been my experience and is my opinion that, with due diligence, if you peak around now and then, you will indeed most assuredly find some better than average (and possibly in the near future, even better than average) deals on the used market, yes - imho.
Now to be sure, some of the deals you might be fortunate enough to come across, might come at the expense of those selling these deals in the form of them having to take a loss on the products they're offering. Do not be alarmed at such a postion, nor ashamed to take full advantage - regardless of what financial position the selling party might be in (that's their business, really) at the time of the sale.
As a "bargain shopper" myself, over the last 15 or so years trading audio/video gear, I have found these trends, from time to time, to be even more favorable than at others - and even more so in trying times such as these. (Home Depot used to have several hundred dollar items on their shelves that were clearanced down to one penny!!! ...of which I bought plenty,...cause I re-sold em,.. and thusly made lots more pennies - I have receipts)
While some may, unfortunately, end up needing to make shifts in their assets, in an attempt to stay a bit more liquid than hoped, It is nonetheless an inevitable ebb-and- flow cycle, due to economic forces that are invariably beyond most of our control. Hence, better than average deals often come upon us in a given possibly declining economic climate, depending. Again, this is normal.
Again, my forecast for now is that the deals are out there, yes. Also, I personally am forecasting even better deals to come likely, based on common sense and past experience with in similar economic situations.
That all said, happy hunting to all you bargain shoppers!
(P.S., oh, and it's OK to take advantage of otherwise financially less fortunate (I'm pretty sure they're going Bank-o) and heavily asset leveraged companies such as Circuit City , on Black Friday, also. Just so you know. Also, large chains such as Home Depot and Lowes are dropping a few stores due to a down-turn in the economy, and slowing(ed) overall sales - and they'll be offering some deals too, whilest they're hurting.
But please don't feel bad shopping at these multi- million/Billion dollar retailers, just try to enjoy yourself while shopping in these stores, and feel free to take full advantage of the savings they are offering, if you can,...cause they ARE offering.
Getting finacial advice from people who spend >$100 for a pair of RCA cables is not the smartest thing.
IMO, buy what you want when you can afford it. If you can't afford it, your credit card company will soon let you know anyway.
Chicken Little in the house......
Oh Jeeves,pull up the Bently,I want to play naked also...
Cool, I though it was just me!
And yet it is still a good time to buy (yes, used gear), as prices are generally down on the market. And also next year, you can likely bet prices will be down even more. Make of it what you wish.
I have to agree with Iplaynaked (although your screen name gives me the appropriate willies). I find it hard to feel bad and moved to tears buy the so-called "suffering" of people like the majority on these forums, and I include myself right in there, in spite of probably owning much less in audio equipment than the average A'gon-er. If our problem is that we can no longer enjoy the best stereo we could buy at one time, we do have it pretty good, don't you think? There are people who do not have any food on their table, yes, it sounds corny, but doesn't make it less true, THAT is sad. Me not being able to afford the $2500 speakers I think would go great with my Quad system, and having to part with my "second" system - not really so sad.