It is bad to hear but it’s only the beginning. One NBA player has it and the NBA is suspending the season until further notice. Tom Hanks and his wife have it. They got it while filming down in Australia and have gone into voluntary quarantine.
Trump just banned all travel from Europe to America unless you’re from The United Kingdom (which doesn’t make sense) and South Korea (which makes even less sense). But these are the cards we’ve been dealt.
States, counties and cities have began banning groups of anywhere from 250-1000, depending on the occasion and circumstances.
Be vigilant. Wash your hands frequently. Don’t go and crowd the hospitals with something they have no cure for yet. Only go in if you’re having difficulty breathing. Again, wash your hands frequently. That can’t be stressed enough.
Wasn’t it just a few days ago that the Supreme Leader had a hunch it was all going to "magically" go away (as soon as the weather turns warm, America), so as to not make him look bad? Duh.
And the issue for those not in the Faux cult bubble is that the 20% drives the health care system into overload.
those who struggle with facts or think America is different will of course disagree
simple math which our family routinely experience in San Diego ( cancer ) the average time in ER before an open bed assigned is about 20 hours. This in the top tier UCSD system.
Actually, Dr. Fauci said that it was at least 10x more deadly than the flu. And then there is this...it is hard to get help of any kind if you can’t easily be tested.
It’s basically a numbers game. One week ago there were 100 cases in US. Now, a week later it’s 1000. In a week, at that rate, it will be 8000, and in two weeks 64,000. If they can get a handle on stopping the spread of the virus of course the outcome will be better.
Tell Americans to stay home and NOT MOVE. For a minimum of three weeks. Good luck with that....
China is dong this with their draconian hand. It is 'sort of' working. But it still threatens to explode into motion again, at every turn. Same for South Korea. Out of all people on the planet to listen to some minimal form of authority, it may be that Americans are fairly low on that list.
So this may be a huge unrelenting problem. For a long time.
That is the estimate that is coming from just about every expert you can name or find. across the entire planet. the eventual outcome of a peak curve or a flattened curve long term curve. It matters not. All predict the same, on average % of infected in a given population/group.
The fast peak (large numbers infected at once), if not flattened out via mitigation of the spread..that possible peak of percentage of infected, is generally considered to be a higher % than without mitigation or slowing of the infected.
The slow or slow ramp up run to the possibly near identical % (but possibly lower %) of overall infected has less people dying, and is the preferred scenario. Simply due to the slowed infection rate over time allowing hospitals to have time and resource to respond.
So, two doorways, both ugly. The fast nasty one, or the drip drip drip slow one.
Interestingly enough, this will very likely drop the number of influenza fatalities across the planet, in a notable way.
Extrapolating from the infections vs fatalities in the USA, in the specific timing of all of it.....using other scenarios of outcomes, indicates that low levels of testing in the USA has created a scenario where community spread is higher than it seems.
This means a large number of detected infections in a very short time frame --is coming for the USA. Meaning something closer to the current situation in Italy is in store for the USA, vs the more desirable situation of South Korea...(Korea: earlier widespread detection, means a lower overall death rate [via better control of infection rates] and less likely to overwhelm the health care system)
the only way America can get ahead of this thing and slow it down so it does not overwhelm healthcare and kill many at once via the overload... is through massive levels of testing, like Korea. today. Literally, today. Yesterday would have been better. spray the test bullets around now, as widely and as wisely as possible, or pay the price. Spend/use all the test kits now, as they are making more constantly.
Italy figured out this wise Korean proactive action and act, just a little to late, and are now paying the price in the form of a deadly peak. One where they are just letting people die. No choice.
These people testing have to come to your door like the galwdamn KGB, FBI and the SS all rolled into one, and have the authority to make whatever move and motion they want, stick. As, in the end, if a sharp peak happens, they will get the authority, regardless. But the people will resist, most likely, until the mass dying of the at risk groups actually happens. But someone should grab a hold of this and push it through (as an act), regardless.
As that is what is going on in places like India, right now. Look at the organization of their culture and social situations. The density. The complexity. They have zero choice but to proactively move among their population, detaining and laying down decisions of absolute power on the individual level, like uber killer snakes on a feverish mission. If they don’t... their country falls apart. In a few short weeks. so the hard push is now, dammit, now. They’ve dealt with it before and they know this method works, so they hit the red extreme button, immediately. And they may manage to mitigate it. Maybe.
Of course the number of actual cases is almost certainly considerably higher than the number of confirmed cases due to a number of issues including incubation period and testing itself. With this in mind an estimate of 64,000 confirmed cases in two weeks in the US could be a very optimistic number.
Correct geoffkait. For every 10 known cases there are about 1000 you do not know about. The only way this could have been stopped was at the very beginning. So here is what has to happen. The entire low risk population has to self immunize by getting exposed. As the immunity of the herd increases the block to further spread will increase and the disease will die down which is exactly what is happening in China now. The case reports are falling off. In the mean while "at risk" people are going to have to maintain a low profile until it blows over. I tell my older patients to stay home and avoid visitors. If they have to go out shopping they should go out just when the store opens in the AM and wear a NIOSH N95 mask which I supply them with. In two to three months it will blow over and everyone will wonder what all the excitement was about.
my logic is not your logic. Your logic is not your neighbor’s logic.
You know that your logic will never prevail and never work. Neither will mine. We can all have excellent functional plans, but the outcome will be none of that, it will be..whatever it is.
And that given whatever...is usually ugly and formed by the emotion of the crowd vs the misapplication of faulty logic and incorrect force by the given authority.
@thecarpathian, I couldn't find Dr. Fauci quoted online but it was broadcasted all day long on TV. The only online quote I could find is his saying "many, many millions" will get it.
The only quote that uses those figures that I could find were from Dr. Monahan, the attending physician of Congress and the Supreme Court. And, I inverted the numbers which should be 70-150 million. I was tired when I posted it.
Monahan made the comments to Senate staff during a closed-door meeting Tuesday afternoon, according to NBC News. The meeting did not include senators and was for administrative office staff and personnel from both parties, NBC News reported.– Lovelace
Numbers aside, the Italians are warning us not to do the same thing they did, which really worsened the situation. They all went around saying it's just another flu and didn't take it seriously.
This graph/article tells the story about an important goal... not to have the system overwhelmed in a way that people can’t get top notch hospital breathing care/treatment if they need it.
Roxy54, It will be an interesting study to revisit this thread in about 6 months or so. Compare the ’actua’l’ outcome and resolution of this vial outbreak to the dire speculation and hyperbole present here. The United States is very fortunate to have the level of expertise of the Corona virus task force working (Infectious Disease, Immunology and Epidemiology) on their behalf. Charles
Maybe it will be like War of the Worlds, the coronavirus is killed by the common cold. Or like Mars Attacks, the aliens are killed by playing yodel music of Slim Whitman who, frankly, looks a lot like an alien.
It's funny when presenting facts from the premier medical experts are considered "hyperbole". And as for that "expertise of the Corona virus task force", the team that headed the office for situations like this was shut down two years ago because the previous administration thought it prudent to have them at the ready.
You see, we knew that after an outbreak two years prior, we discovered a couple other strains like this due to Walter Reed Hospital (our military) working with civilian scientists to identify and stop a different virus. They didn't do that before.
We knew it was out there but the money wasn't available to work on a vaccine, which is why we created that agency, which was shut down.
That's a big 10-4, sir. Unfortunately, when a governor like Jay Inslee goes ahead and takes the initiative, someone from the Oval Office goes on TV and calls him a snake.
Interesting that DARPA supports a pandemic preparedness program for the last two years and is currently working on a 'therapy' to slow the spread down to buy time for a vaccine.
@snapsc, Thanks for the link. It’s a great source for understanding the math behind it all and how to interpret it. The author should be proud of himself for the levels he went to to explain it.
And, this just in: burial sites in Iran are large enough to be seen by our satellites. At first I thought the photos were of large farming plots. There is a clamp down of any info coming out of Iran and to see those burial sites doesn’t give one any reassurance. Granted, they have lower standards and infrastructure than we do but it’s still bad.
And, the Italian Minister of Health just checked into the hospital with the virus.
Absolutely amazing. The mythology id flying. Her comes chicken little. Hide your children in the storm cellar, get the gas mask, run to the South Pole. Pretty soon the Penguins will get it. The natural history of viruses like this one are well known. Women under 70 and men under forty will have minimal symptoms an think it is just a cold or Spring allergies. 10% of women over 70 and men over 40 are at risk for severe disease. These are the people that need to be careful. Millions of people will be exposed, have mild disease and will develop immunity. As the immunity of the herd increases the spread of the disease will decline until it is gone. This is exactly what is happening in China now. By July the worse will be over and the Chicken Little people will look like fools. You are in way more danger every time you get in your car. If you are that paranoid get a NIOSH N95 mask and wear it out in public. As for me, I'm flying to Florida next week to visit family. I get daily updates from the CDC and State of NH. The medical system is more than ready to handle the cases. I have access to the tests now but if I suspect a case I have to get approval from the State to order the test.
Dr. Fauci said the common flu's rate is 0.1% and this virus is 0.9-1.0% which rounds up to 10 time worse. That figure of 3.4 was suspected after it first came out due to lack of data.
And, all this talk about "herd immunity" is being bandied about as if we're all back in the 14th century. It's been noticed on certain sites and other forms of programming and media but not at all used by the medical community while informing the public.
No doctor, in their right mind, is telling people to go out and get yourself infected. Quite the opposite. Just the herd mentality in some, here.
The purpose of using current data and keeping the public informed is to flatten the curve. Just go back and read the link that snapsc posted. It's a long read but I'm sure you can do it.
And, when politics interjects itself into medicine and how it affects the community at large, it's kinda hard to separate the two, but we're doing our best. To bring it up as an argument because you don't wanna hear it is being political, dontcha think?
No. It is called "being frustrated". Give us a break with political conspiracies. It is really getting boring.
That kind of talk is and had been used by a certain side ad nauseam as a fall back position when running out of talking points. To commit anything more to memory is just too taxing, I guess.
That is a political talking point, plain and simple.
You must have a verified phone number and physical address in order to post in the Audiogon Forums. Please return to Audiogon.com and complete this step. If you have any questions please contact Support.
